The meeting of the presidents of Russia and the US in Hamburg has been sold to us by the press, particularly in the West, as one of the key events in the most recent history of bilateral relations between the two great powers.
Special thanks to Helge Sjöfarare for his collaboration on this analysis
In fact, the event was so hyped up that the entire G-20 meeting looked more like a backdrop (or a scene in a movie where the extras simply look on as the two protagonists finally meet face to face) than a political event of serious consequence. The Western press wanted us to believe that Trump would give in to Russia if he were left to his own devices. It was going to be nothing less than a royal treachery of American interests, a catastrophe that could only be prevented by true American heroes like Fiona Hill (Russia Adviser on National Security Council) or Trump’s wife (who apparently tried to butt in and interrupt the meeting.) Who could have prompted her to do that? Food for thought…
Either way, both the neo-liberal and neo-con camps were hysterical in their desperation to prevent President Trump from discussing anything meaningful, peaceful and constructive with President Putin. After the meeting took place, they were even more aghast to learn that the two had got along rather well and talked amicably for more than two hours, instead of the allotted thirty minutes. A naïve observer might have thought that indeed something big happened, some sort of a breakthrough. It might even appear that this was a victory for all peaceful political forces, and I would dare say all normal people, who were interested in the normalizing of Russia-US relations, right?
Not so fast.
The meeting was a charade, or a smoke screen if you prefer this term better. It was allowed to happen for a reason: to obfuscate the real geopolitical machinations going on behind the scenes. Let me explain. It would not be news to you, dear reader if I said that the foreign policy of the United States is shaped by its long-term interests, the latter being formed by powerful interest groups and then formalized by various government agencies. While the president can influence the execution of the long-term strategy, it is hard to imagine that he alone can change it, particularly as a result of a nice chit-chat with a fellow president. In this respect, let’s recollect what the long-term strategy of the US is. A thorough reading of the President’s National Security Strategy statement (circa 2015) shows an unyielding desire to dominate the world: “We have an opportunity—and obligation—to lead the way in reinforcing, shaping, and where appropriate, creating the rules, norms, and institutions that are the foundation for peace, security, prosperity, and the protection of human rights in the 21st century.” If global domination is the unabashedly stated US foreign policy goal, then a confrontation with those countries who oppose it, particularly Russia, is the only logical consequence. It simply cannot be otherwise.
The election of Donald Trump as the President of the US was an unpleasant surprise for the globalist neocon elite, who was responsible for composing the above-mentioned strategy and who by the end of Obama’s term had become deeply entrenched in the Deep State. All the US government agencies and international organizations, and NATO were marching in lockstep to promote the neocon agenda for a global, US-dominated world order. They are not going to change these plans because of Trump’s presidency or because of his desire to come to terms with President Putin. They staked way too much on their strategy to let Russia or Trump stop them. Given that, I would suggest that the globalists will do all they can, short of nuclear war, to remove any obstacles in their path. The biggest international obstacle for them is Russia, with its independent foreign policy, slowly recovering economic and military power and its deeply rooted traditional values.
In the very near future, all neocon resources will be thrown into action to weaken and destabilize Russia at a minimum or, if circumstance allows, to effect regime change in the Kremlin. I think all the pieces are set on the geopolitical chessboard and are ready to move. They are:
- Energy Sector Sanctions. We know the US Senate has passed a bill imposing sanctions on companies investing in energy projects with Russian capital participation. The next stops are the House of Representatives and the President, who may or may not veto the bill. Should the bill be passed and signed into law, the federal budget of Russia will fall by 12%, the oligarchs in charge of Russian energy companies will sustain losses, the Europeans will have to buy American shale gas, imported through LNG tankers even though they are vehemently objecting to this perspective now.
- Ukraine. Ukraine is gearing up for war. Leaks from anti-Kiev military officers still in the Ukrainian army talk about a massive concentration of armor and artillery on the eastern front. Meanwhile, Ukraine is increasing its propaganda efforts to justify war with Russia internally and externally. In other words, the country is getting ready to fulfill its historic mission: to become inglorious cannon fodder for the Globalists in the next edition of “Drang Nach Osten.”
- Un-systemic Russian opposition. It is no secret that US diplomats have spent an inordinate amount of time in Russia trying to consolidate disparate opposition groups of misguided Russian citizens. Ambassador Tuft, who is leaving Russia now, was particularly skilled at this type of coordination work. We saw how it worked in Ukraine in 2013-2014 when different marginal groups from the radical left to the radical right were cobbled together to start the EuroMaidan. Now, it is true that most Russians of a certain age remember the notorious 90’s and don’t believe Western promises of prosperity through Democracy and free-market Capitalism, however, there is a vocal slice of the population that has fond memories of the freedoms of the 90’s. They got rich robbing and looting the country and wouldn’t mind a second shot at that. And of course, there is a new generation of Russians, the trendy youth, who don’t really remember what the 90’s did to their country. They make for useful idiots and good props for Western cameras.
- Russian oligarchs. Americans are already putting a lot of pressure on key Russian oligarchs so that they stop supporting Putin and his governing team and favor more pro-Western political figures. Again, this has been successfully tried before in Ukraine. Frankly, it was done successfully in Russia under Yeltsin, as well. But back to Ukraine. Let me remind readers how the Special Representative on Ukraine, the notorious Victoria Nuland, quietly met with Ukrainian oligarchs during the Euromaidan in Kiev. It was not hard for her to be convincing when she knew their ill-gotten assets were stored in the West. One after another they abandoned the legitimate (but also very corrupt) President of Ukraine and signed up for the America-led coup d’état.
- Syria. Here, Russian and Syrian troops are winning the war against ISIS. However, the Russian troops can be checked by American forces, just like the Syrian forces have been forcefully checked on multiple occasions. An escalation in Syria is not off the table.
- Southern underbelly. Conflicts in Central Asia and the Caucasus can be re-kindled to make it even more difficult for Russia and its partners to cope. Uzbeks and Chechens are the two easiest groups to rile up. They are Muslims after all. Chechnya remains poised on the brink of civil war and Wahabi Islam is starting to penetrate Uzbekistan which has visa-free travel with Russia. Not a good combination. But hey, big business needs its cheap labor, so the border stays open.
Again, there is really nothing new at work here. The “partners and colleagues” of Russia in the West, along with the “progressives” and the “real patriots” in Russia, are going to try the old, but thoroughly rehearsed strategy of 1917. Remember, Imperial Russia was broken by a combination of domestic disgust over an unpopular “imperialist” war and a foreign government-funded revolution by the Brits with Kerensky in February and the Germans with Lenin in October. So that’s the plan. The chessboard has been reset for 2017. The steps are as follows:
- It is very likely that the ruling regime in Kiev (Ukraine) will start a major provocation in Donbass in the next month or so. The scale of this provocation will be large, very large. This provocation should be sufficiently large that Russia feels obligated to respond. To put it even more bluntly, the Kiev regime will be ready to commit atrocities to get Russia to openly enter into the conflict in the East. The regime in Kiev has exhausted all means of staying in power otherwise: there are clashes now with the neo-Nazi muscle that they used in the Euromaidan who now demand more power, Ukraine’s economy is in disarray, its reserve funds are dwindling, and it’s being nudged relentlessly towards confrontation with Russia by the US and NATO. War with Russia vindicates Kiev’s propaganda and allows them to sign off all their sins and failures, it may even allow them to cling on to power a bit longer, steal a bit more and prepare an escape route to the West where they can receive their Nobel Peace Prizes or something similar. Come to think of it, it also vindicates all the US/NATO propaganda and justifies their belligerent policy (and aggressive military spending) towards Russia. The only potential obstacle here is Trump and his small team of “isolationists”.
- Let’s imagine Trump doesn’t object and Kiev pounces. Let’s also imagine that Russia responds with full force. Footage of Russian troops pouring over the border will be played on the news round the clock. This will allow the Neocons to push through Congress and the White House a bill slapping sanctions on energy-related projects connected to Russia. All objections from Europeans will be shoved aside under the pretext that “allies must act as one in the face of blatant aggression.” They did the same when they blamed the East Ukrainian militia and by extension Russia with the downing the Malaysian airliner… By the way, there is some consolation for Trump here: the US LNG exports to Europe will grow, (the first full tanker is already berthed in Poland) and demand is high. That’s good for America, even if it hurts Europe. Another captive market for American goods.
- Sanctions will start biting the oligarchs. According to all well-tested color revolution scenarios, they will start changing their allegiances slowly but surely. They should be expected to start funding the non-systemic opposition groups. In fact, there is plenty of evidence that they have already started to do so.
- If we play out the scenario some more, by sometime in mid-winter, the war in Ukraine is turning into a Russian Vietnam, and Russia starts sustaining visible losses. The economy starts faltering and the moral in the Russian society at large drops.
- On top of things, in Syria, someone (maybe even the Americans) downs another Russian plane or a helicopter. Yet, the Russian government doesn’t respond, as it is stretched thin and cannot commit itself to combat enemies successfully on two fronts, particularly in Syria where communication lines through the Bosporus are controlled by a NATO member – Turkey. The government now looks weak and pathetic which is very bad optics in Russian politics.
- Unrest and trouble in Central Asia start brewing. The Nagorny Karabakh conflict starts again as the Azeris launch a fresh assault on the heights. Everywhere the noose is tightening.
- Now, it’s time for the Russian presidential elections in March and of course, they are labeled illegitimate by the (((international community))) and its Russian collaborators. After all, according to the American well-tested scenario book on color revolutions, there simply cannot be fair elections in countries opposing the US.
- The mass demonstrations begin, led by the “white-ribbon” Bolotnaya activists (or whatever color they choose this time around.) The power in the Kremlin caves and Russians are given a new, politically correct and progressive leadership, who will reconcile them with their estranged Western family. They’ll get welcomed back with open arms and a stern lecture. Something along the lines of what the Godfather might say: “Fredo, you’re my brother, and I love you. But don’t ever take sides with anyone against the Family again.”
There you have it, the Deep State strategy for Russia in the upcoming year. Most importantly, the odds seem high that it might actually be attempted. Will it succeed? Maybe, maybe not. It seems that the Russians know what is afoot. But time will tell, and we won’t have to wait long to see if this theory plays out.